An Economic Sea Change
With all the doom in the markets, it's essential to get a bird's eye reading of economic conditions when expectations suddenly change. A minority of economists and pundits timed this summer's oil price crash correctly. The flux in all markets - stocks, housing, financial, political - will be with us for the foreseeable future, so I would expect by the November 4 election, there will be a completely different set of market perceptions.
Recent past vs. Present
OIL
June 9: Newsweek - Oil could hit $200
Sept 5: $107. Weakening global economy has reset oil demand expectations, and speculators also in process of unwinding long positions.
HYPERINFLATION RISK
June 18: Hyperinflation, here we come
Sept 5: Market shows inflation expectations at five-year low
DOLLAR STRENGTH
July 15: Bloomberg - Dollar falls to record low
Sept 5: $1.43 per Euro, down from $1.60 on July 15, a rise of roughly 13% in less than 2 months. The investor perception is the European and Asian economies are slowing down while the US may be the first out of the blocks to recovery. Lower oil/commodity prices also contribute the dollar's rise.
VIABILITY OF GSE'S FREDDIE MAC AND FANNIE MAE
Aug 27: Bloomberg - Fannie, Freddie rise based on news that they were able to obtain financing at more reasonable terms than expected
Sept 7: Government takes over Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae
The bailout establishes closure to the credit crisis' most explosive issue. It's final proof that the US government will support the mortgage bonds and allay foreign investor fears. It clears the air politically to potentially boost the economy before the November elections.
CREDIT CRISIS & HOUSING MARKETS
Unfortunately, the prognoses always seem to dismal... stay tuned.
Hi Pat:
Very interesting statistics. Thanks for the research.
Misty
http://viscape.com
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