On Friday, national political columnist George Will wrote about a favorite concept of mine called "Cheat the Prophet"... I first heard of this arcane reference over 20 years ago in a business school finance class as a defining trait of contrarian investing. It happens when you're told, by the mass media or authoritative sources, that something is inevitable.... and it kind of rankles you.

And that can provoke them to play the game that G.K. Chesterton called "Cheat the Prophet". The players listen politely to explanations of what is inevitable, then they make something else happen, which defeats boredom.

It's the same concept behind supporting the pitiful underdog when you're watching a sporting event you don't care about - just to make the game close and exciting. Will discusses how the campaign of Hillary Clinton is faltering because the media had played out her front runner status, only to suddenly find Barack Obama stealing thunder because the Clinton campaign is... well... boring (the title of Will's article is "Color Hillary Red for Republican" for her no-take-chances campaign so far). Philosophically speaking, it almost doesn't matter whether Obama really is a better candidate... he's cheating the prophet.

"Cheat the Prophet" players stir things up for NO reason other than to shake up the status quo... and they have fun doing it. Bloodhound's Greg Swann is my favorite example, and I appreciated his acknowledgement when I first started blogging by referring to "TransparentRE.com weblog ... as a profoundly unapologetic disturber of the peace".

The housing bubble blog authors (note: I'm now watching their reactions to the upturning multiple offer Bay Area market) shake things up, but their articles and their readers tend to be manically negative (CtP players shouldn't be so glum). Their collective popularity always mystified me, but their attraction is summed up by Scoble who answers the question: why don't positive blogs outweigh the negative blogs ?  Human nature. We like shit disturbers more than we like people who are calm, rational, nice...

I generally don't do lists, but here are acknowledgements to a few other sh.. disturbing authors (in alpha order, there are more but I kept the list short), whose blogs, by virtue of always poking the status quo for fun and games (and in a civil manner), change the way people think...

• Drew Meyer's Insights - questions everything and sees contrarian plays even at a relatively young age where experience and history help in perspective.
• Glenn Kelman Redfin - I've noticed most CtP players have a teflon sheen because they are not on a pathological quest to destroy the status quo... so the status quo tends to label us as "off-the-wall",or  "just being who they are" when we spout off. Well, Glenn is on a mission to change the status quo and he needs a new frying pan... I'm an admirer.
  
• Jeff Corbett's Xbroker introduces a simplistic business model and all hell breaks loose.
• Kevin Boer 3 Oceans recently questioned Redfin's methodology just for kicks, causing Glenn and his team to spend a few days checking a lot of HUD-1 statements and re-reporting their findings. While Redfin was recalculating, Kevin was hoping he hadn't opened a can of worms for Redfin... after all, questioning for questioning's sake is his ultimate reward...
  
• Mary McKnight RSS Pieces loves blogs that upset carts...
• Nigel Swaby in SLC authors the wunderkind blog in obscure Utah... he publicized the intriguing voice of bubble target Casey Serin and then manages the dialogue with the bubble-istas. This is original thinking.